超越云: 混合现实、人工智能和量子计算 (一)

2018-03-15 23:03:49 织梦安装使用
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说明:本文来自微软CEO Satya Nadella的新书《Hit Refresh》第六章。本章主要介绍未来技术的三个趋势:混合现实、人工智能和量子计算。其视野的宽度,对技术理解的深刻,可帮助我们当别人认真谈技术发展时,可不要还只会对一些概念感慨和抒情。

 

第六章:超越云

三个转变:混合现实、人工智能和量子计算

Chapter 6
Beyond the Cloud
Three Shifts: Mixed Reality, Artificial Intelligence, and Quantum Computing

 

      最初我把这本书看作转型中的 CEO思考集。作为一个主导公司转型和创造变革技术的人我的目标是实时分享经验而不是多年后回顾这些经验。当然微软的转型还正在进行。面对全球经济和技术的不确定性我们重新确定使命重新评估微软文化的优先秩序, 重建或者新建战略伙伴关系以巩固我们的业务根基。我们也需要加快我们的创新精神并下新且大胆的赌注。这是使微软成为一个超过四十年值得信赖的技术品牌的原因。

      Originally, I thought of this book as a collection of meditations from a CEO in the midst of transformation. As someone both navigating a corporate transformation and creating transformational technologies, my aim was to share these experiences in real time rather than look back on them years later. The Microsoft transformation, of course, is ongoing. In the face of global economic and technological uncertainty, we reset our mission, reprioritized our culture, and built or rebuilt strategic partnerships in order to solidify the foundation of our business. We also needed to hasten our innovative spirit and place new, bold bets. This is what has made Microsoft a trusted tech brand for more than forty years.

      我们在PC 和服务器之外进行了洞察,以推动云业务的成功。但我们也不得不观察云业务之外的领域。预测技术趋势危险重重。有人说我们往往高估了短期内能达到的目标低估了从长远来看可以取得的成就。但我们正在投资于将在未来几年塑造我们和其它产业的三项关键技术——混合现实人工智能和量子计算。这些技术将不可避免地导致经济和社会的巨大变化。在这本书的最后三章我将探讨为下一波浪潮做准备需要考虑的价值观伦理、政策和经济学。

We looked beyond the PC and the server to drive success in the cloud. But we also had to look beyond the cloud. Forecasting technology trends can be perilous. It’s been said we tend tooverestimate what we can achieve in the short run, but underestimate what can be achieved in the long run. But we are investing to lead in three key technologies that will shape our industry and others in the years to come—mixed reality, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. These technologies will inevitably lead to massive shifts in our economy and society. In the final three chapters of this book, I’ll explore the values, ethics, policies, and economics we need to consider in preparation for this next wave.

   这里有一个将这些来临的技术变迁融合的思考办法。我们正在用混合现实构建最终计算体验在虚拟现实当中,个人视野成为一个计算界面数字世界和物理世界融合在一起。当你想访问手机或平板电脑里的同事和朋友,数据应用程序都随时可用无论你在办公室工作拜访客户或者正和同事在会议室里协商。人工智能增强了每一个人的体验用洞察和预测能力来扩大了人类独自无法企及的能力。最后量子计算将允许我们突破摩尔定律的界限——观察到计算机芯片中晶体管的数量大约每两年翻一倍,它通过改变我们今天所知道的计算物理给我们提供计算能力以解决世界上最大和最复杂的问题。混合现实、人工智能和量子可能今天毫不相干,但是他们正在走到一起。我们对此充满信心

Here is one way to think about the convergence of these coming technology shifts. With mixed reality we are building the ultimate computing experience, one in which your field of view becomes a computing surface and the digital world and your physical world become one. The data, apps, and even the colleagues and friends you think of as being on your phone or tablet are now available anywhere you want to access them—while you’re working in your office, visiting a customer, or collaborating with colleagues in a conference room. Artificial intelligence powers every experience, augmenting human capability with insights and predictive power that would be impossible to achieve on our own. Finally, quantum computing will allow us to go beyond the bounds of Moore’s Law—the observation that the number of transistors in a computer chip doubles roughly every two years—by changing the very physics of computing as we know it today, providing the computational power to solve the world’s biggest and most complex problems. MR, AI, and quantum may be independent threads today, but they are going to come together. We’re betting on it.

一个错过了这类趋势技术公司将不可避免地落后。当然忽视当前的业务核心去追逐未经测试的未来技术是危险的。这就是经典的创新者窘境--追求新机遇的同时冒着丧失现有成功的风险。

A technology company that misses multiple trends like these will inevitably fall behind. At the same time, of course, it’s dangerous to chase untested future technologies while neglecting the core of the current business. That’s the classic innovator’s dilemma—to risk existing success while pursuing new opportunities.

从历史上看微软曾为争取这种平衡而努力。我们实际上在 iPad 出现之前就推出过平板电脑; Kindle 出现之前我们在通向电子阅读器的道路上走得也不错。但在某些情况下我们的软件领先于成功所需的关键组件如触摸屏硬件或宽带连接。在其它情况下我们缺少端到端的设计思想无法为市场提供完整的解决方案。我们在快速跟踪竞争对手的能力上也有点过于自信忘记了这种策略中存在内在的风险。我们或许害怕破坏我们自己的高度成功的商业模式。我们从这一切中得到教训:发明未来没有套路。一个公司必须有它独一无二且能实现的完整愿景然后以信念和能力支持它使之发生。

Historically, Microsoft has struggled at times to get this balance right. We actually had a tablet before the iPad; we were well along the path toward an e-reader before the Kindle. But in some cases our software was ahead of the key components required for success, such as touchscreen hardware or broadband connectivity. In other cases, we lacked end-to-end design thinking to bring a complete solution to market. We also got a bit overconfident in our ability to fast-follow a competitor, forgetting that there is inherent risk in such a strategy. We were perhaps timid in disrupting our own highly successful business models. We’ve learned from all this. There is no formula to inventing the future. A company has to have a complete vision for what it can uniquely do, and then back it up with conviction and the capability to make it happen.

在成为首席执行官之前我已经决定我们要以更进取和更聚焦的方式在新技术和新市场继续投资,  条件是能够满意地满足3C要求——有一个激动人心的概念(Concept有成功的必要能力(Capabilities necessary,以及一种欢迎新想法和方法的文化(Culture)。

I had decided before becoming CEO that we would need to continue to invest, and to do so in an aggressive and more focused way, in new technologies and new markets—but only if we could satisfactorily meet our three Cs—do we have an exciting concept, do we have the capabilitiesnecessary to succeed, and a culture that welcomes these new ideas and approaches?

为了避免陷入创新者窘境,也为了从始终着眼于今天的紧迫事情转移到为明天考虑重要事情,我们通过三个增长的领域来看待投资策略第一助力今天的核心业务和技术;第二为未来孕育新的思想和产品;第三投资于长期的突破。在第一个领域我们的客户和合作伙伴将继续在我们业务中看到季度、年度的创新。在第二个领域我们已经投资于一些激动人心的短期的平台转型比如使用语音或数字墨水的新用户界面,使用个人助理和机器人新应用程序还有从工厂到汽车到家电包罗万象的物联网。在第三个领域微软高度集中于几年前听起来很遥远但今天却是创新前沿的领域——混合现实、人工智能和量子计算。混合现实将成为医学、教育和制造业的重要工具。AI 将帮助预测像 Zika 流行病这样的危机帮助我们把时间和注意力集中在最重要的事情上。量子计算将赋予我们治愈癌症有效地解决全球变暖问题的计算能力。

To avoid being trapped by the innovator’s dilemma—and to move from always focusing on the urgency of today to considering the important things for tomorrow—we decided to look at our investment strategy across three growth horizons: first, grow today’s core businesses and technologies; second, incubate new ideas and products for the future; and third, invest in long-term breakthroughs. On horizon one, our customers and partners will continue to see quarter-by-quarter, year-by-year innovations in all of our businesses. On horizon two, we’re already investing in some exciting nearer-term platform shifts, such as new user interfaces with speech or digital ink, new applications with personal assistants and bots, and Internet of Things experiences for everything from factories to cars to home appliances. On horizon three, Microsoft is highly focused in areas that only a few years ago sounded distant, but today are frontiers of innovation—mixed reality, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. Mixed reality will become an essential tool in medicine, education, and manufacturing. AI will help forecast crises like the Zika epidemic and help us focus our time and attention on things that matter most. Quantum computing will give us the computational power to cure cancer and effectively address global warming.

关于计算机如何增强人类智力和构建集体智商的知性历史一直让我着迷。道格恩格尔巴特在二十世纪六十年代展示了 "所有演示的原型", 介绍了鼠标超文本和共享屏幕电话会议。恩格尔巴特定律指出人类的行为速度是呈指数性增长;虽然技术将增强我们的能力精益求精的能力是人类特有的努力。他基本上为人机交互奠定了基础。还有许多远见者对我和这个行业产生了影响但在我1992年加入微软的时候两部未来小说风行整个校园,工程师们争相传阅。尼尔斯蒂芬森的《雪崩》使“虚拟空间这个词变得家喻户晓,其构想出一个集体虚拟且共享的空间。David Gelernter 的《镜像世界》预见软件将用数字模仿代替现实来革新计算和改造社会。现在看来这些想法都是看得见的未来。

The intellectual history of how computers augment the human intellect and build a collective IQ has always fascinated me. Doug Engelbart in the 1960s performed “the mother of all demos,” introducing the mouse, hypertext, and shared-screen teleconferencing. Engelbart’s Law states that the rate of human performance is exponential; that while technology will augment our capabilities,our ability to improve upon improvements is a uniquely human endeavor. He essentially founded the field of human-computer interaction. There are many other visionaries who influenced me and the industry, but around the time I joined Microsoft in 1992, two futuristic novels were being eagerly consumed by engineers all over campus. Neal Stephenson’s Snow Crash popularized the term metaverse, envisioning a collective virtual and shared space. David Gelernter wrote Mirror Worlds, foreseeing software that would revolutionize computing and transform society by replacing reality with a digital imitation. These ideas are now within sight.

 

*  *  *

     至少对我来说第一次体验到一项深奥的新技术是一种神奇的感觉。在二十世纪八十年代当我第一次学会用我爸爸为我买的那台 Z80 电脑写几行Basic代码时灯泡熄灭了。突然间我和一台机器开始交流,我写一些东西电脑就产生输出作为回应。我更改程序,电脑就会立即更改响应。我发现了软件是人类创造的最具可塑性的资源。我清楚地记得我第一次遇到电子表格时的兴奋劲——就像瓶子里的闪电一样。像数据透视表这样的数据结构现在已经成为了人们思考数字的第二天性。

It is a magical feeling, at least for me, the first time you experience a profound new technology. In the 1980s, when I first learned to write a few lines of BASIC code for that Z80 computer my dad bought for me, the lightbulb went off. Suddenly I was communicating with a machine. I wrote something and it generated output, a response. I could change the program and instantly change the response. I had discovered software, the most malleable resource humans have made. It was like lightning in a bottle. I clearly remember the excitement I felt the first time I encountered the spreadsheet. A data structure like pivot tables was now second nature to how one thought about numbers.

我们的行业充满了发现的尤里卡时刻(兴奋时刻)。令人惊讶的是,我最让人难以忘记的时刻是站在微软92楼的地下室里却抵达了火星的表面。

Our industry is full of those eureka moments of discovery. My most startling moment arrived, surprisingly, on the surface of planet Mars—standing in the basement of Microsoft’s Building 92.

在那里我首先在一个全息透镜上滑行这是一个小但是完备的头戴电脑。突然全息透镜把我送到了2.5亿英里外的红色星球表面这多亏了 NASA 的好奇心号火星车提供的信息和数据。通过透镜我可以看到我的两只休闲鞋以最自信和难以理解的方式。在靠近岩石满布的金伯利路口,沿着火星车去Murray Buttes的路线行走在尘土飞扬的火星平原。全息透镜使我既可以在实际的房间里走动也可以看到桌子可以和我周围的人互动也可以勘查火星表面的岩石。这是我们所谓的混合现实的惊人且史无前例的特点。这个经历是如此鼓舞人心和生动感人管理团队的一名成员在那次虚拟旅行中哭了。

It was there that I first slipped on a HoloLens device, a small head-mounted computer that is completely self-contained. Suddenly HoloLens transported me—virtually, of course—onto the surface of the Red Planet, 250 million miles away, thanks to a feed from NASA’s Mars rover, Curiosity. Through HoloLens, I could see my two street shoes walking, in the most convincing and baffling way, on the dusty Martian plain near a rocky waypoint called Kimberley along the rover’s journey to Murray Buttes. HoloLens made it possible for me both to walk around the actual room—to see a desk and to interact with people around me—and to inspect rocks on Mars’s surface. That’s the amazing, unprecedented nature of what we call mixed reality. The experience was so inspiring, so moving, that one member of my leadership team cried during that virtual excursion.

那天我所看到和体验到的是微软未来的一瞥。也许这个特殊的时刻将作为一个混合的现实革命的到来会被记住每个人都在现实世界和虚拟世界混合的浸润式环境中工作和游戏。有一天会出现有混合现实原居民,他们是期望计算机体验是浸润式的真实和虚拟融合的年轻人就像今天我们承认数字原居民一样对他们来说互联网一直在那里。

What I saw and experienced that day was a glimpse of Microsoft’s future. Perhaps this particular moment will be remembered as the advent of a mixed reality revolution, one in which everyone works and plays in an immersive environment that blends the real world and a virtual world. Will there one day be mixed reality natives—young people who expect all of their computer experiences to be immersive blends of the real and the virtual—just as today we recognize digital natives, those for whom the Internet has always been there?

公司正在采取不同的方式对待头戴式计算机。如微软的 Windows 10 混合现实设备或 Facebook Oculus rift提供的虚拟现实在很大程度上阻挡了现实世界将用户沉浸在一个完全数字化的世界中。例如谷歌眼镜将信息投射到你的眼镜上。Snapchat 眼镜增强你看到的相关内容并过滤。全息透镜提供混合现实入口在这种情况下用户既可以按照他们的当前位置巡航,并与同一房间里的人进行交互同时还能远程操控全息图和其它数字对象。技术研究公司 Gartner Inc. 的分析师们研究技术从发明到广泛采用 (或消亡宣传周期和曲线,他们相信虚拟现实及时将在5-10年脱离主流。

Companies are taking different approaches with head-mounted computers. Virtual reality, as provided by our Windows 10 MR devices or Facebook’s Oculus Rift, largely blocks out the real world, immersing the user in a completely digital world. Google Glass, for example, projects information onto your eyeglasses. Snapchat Spectacles let you augment what you see with relevant content and filters. HoloLens provides access to mixed reality in which the users can navigate both their current location—interact with people in the same room—and a remote environment while also manipulating holograms and other digital objects. Analysts at Gartner Inc., the technology research firm, have made an art from the study of the hype cycles and arcs followed by new technologies as they move from invention to widespread adoption (or demise), and believe virtual reality technologies are likely five to ten years away from mainstream adoption.

微软刚达起跑线证明这件事对微软很难。我的同事Alex Kipman在一段时间内已经完善了全息透镜的原型。他和他的团队已经开创了一个突破他们开发出了微软的 Kinect—— 今天的运动传感技术是领先机器人的一个组成部分 (使他们能够以类人的方式移动), 同时也提供了一种使用身体在 Xbox 上玩游戏的有趣方式。然而,Alex的全息透镜项目在选择持续的资金投入时在公司到处碰壁。目前还不清楚微软是否会在未经证实的市场上投资于混合现实这项新业务。寻求资金如此荒谬以至于Alex异想天开创造了Baraboo 项目。该名字为了纪念这个威斯康星小镇那里是一个马戏团和小丑博物馆的家。

Just getting to the starting line proved difficult for us. My colleague Alex Kipman had been perfecting a prototype of HoloLens for some time. Alex and his team had already created one breakthrough: They’d developed Microsoft Kinect, the motion-sensing technology that today is an ingredient in leading-edge robots (enabling them to move in a more human-like manner), while also providing a fun way of using your body to play games on Xbox. However, Alex’s HoloLens project had bounced around the company in search of continued funding. It was unclear whether Microsoft would invest in mixed reality, a new business in an unproven market. The quest seemed so ridiculous at times that Alex whimsically code-named the project Baraboo in honor of a town in Wisconsin that is home to a circus and clown museum.

当我看到全息透镜能做什么我就被深深吸引了。全息透镜固然是视频游戏中耀眼的应用但我立即看到了它在教室医院和空间探索的潜力。事实上, NASA 是第一个看到全息透镜价值的组织它采用了早期版本使地球上的宇航员能够与太空中宇航员合作。如果在火星展示后仍有人保持中立比尔盖茨用他体验后的电子邮件说服了最怀疑的人。

Once I got a chance to see what HoloLens could do, I was sold. While HoloLens has obvious applications in video gaming, I instantly saw its potential in classrooms, hospitals, and, yes, space exploration. NASA was, in fact, one of the first organizations to see the value of HoloLens, adopting an early version to enable astronauts on Earth to collaborate with astronauts in space. If anyone wason the fence after the Mars demonstration, Bill Gates’s email after his experience convinced even the most skeptical.

我对火星演示的二件事印象非常深刻:

第一保真度非常好。这个图像看起来很真实当我摇头头图像有真实感。我感觉我就在那里。

第二,能使在周围空间的移动显得很自然的 同时使用周边视觉来避免撞到任何东西。虽然我仍然不知道什么应用会火起来最新的演示真的让我爱上这个项目我们将找到一个方法使它一成功。我已经被说服了

是的,Alex,我们将投资。

I was VERY impressed with 2 things about the Mars demo:

First, the fidelity was VERY good. The image looks real and when I moved my head it felt real. I felt like I was there.

Second, the ability to move physically around the space was quite natural while using peripheral vision to avoid hitting anything. Although I am still not sure what applications will take off, the latest demo really has me enthused about the project and that we will find a way to make this a success. I have been converted.

Yes, Alex, we’ll invest.

为了理解全息透镜的灵魂理解Alex和他的过去是有帮助的。在某些方面我和他的故事有很多共同点。作为一名巴西政府职业外交官的儿子Alex到处搬家发现数学科学最终是计算机是他唯一永远的伴侣。他曾经告诉我:"如果你知道如何用数学和科学你可以做任何事情,"。他的父母给他买了一个雅达利2600家庭视频控制台他屡次摔碎但最终学会了编程。他对科技的热爱促使他去了罗切斯特理工学院还去了 NASA 实习后来在硅谷承担了高度精密的计算机编程工作。

To understand the soul of HoloLens, it helps to understand Alex and his past. In some ways, our stories have a lot in common. The son of a career government diplomat in Brazil, Alex moved around a lot as a kid and found that math, science, and eventually computers were his only consistent companions. “If you know how to paint with math and science, you can make anything,” he once told me. His parents bought him an Atari 2600 home video console that he broke repeatedly but eventually learned to program. His passion for technology led him to the Rochester Institute of Technology, an internship with NASA, and, later, highly sophisticated computer programming roles in Silicon Valley.

然而他的追求是找到一个地方在那里他可以为软件而设计软件在那个地方人们把软件作为艺术品。他来到微软从事设计 windows Vista工作,Window Vista Windows XP期待已久的后继者。尽管它的先进特性 Vista 收到不冷不热的评论没有人比alex更失望。他独自承担了这些并回到巴西反思并对自己职业前景进行洗心革面式思考。Alex非常理性转向尼采的 "知道为什么而活的人可以承担如何过活的所有挑战寻求指引。Alex对自己感到不安因为他还没有找到自己的为什么——关于计算应该朝那个方向的观点。

His quest, however, was to find a place where he could design software for the sake of software, a place that treated software as an art form. He came to Microsoft where he would play a role in designing Windows Vista, the long-awaited successor to Windows XP. When Vista received lukewarmreviews despite its advanced features, no one was more disappointed than Alex. He took it personally and returned to Brazil to reflect—to hit refresh on his own career outlook. Alex is very philosophical and turned to Nietzsche for direction: “He who has a ‘why’ to live for can bear almost any ‘how.’” Alex was upset with himself because he did not yet have his “why,” a point of view about where computing should be headed.

他后来告诉记者Kevin  Dupzyk他参观了巴西东部海岸的一个农场带着笔记本到处闲逛琢磨着他想对计算机做出的贡献。他开始思考计算如何改变时间和空间。为什么我们被限制在键盘和屏幕上?为什么我不能用我的电脑和任何我想要的人不管他们在哪里在一起Alex感觉到计算的进化程度与史前洞穴壁画的程度相当。混合现实将成为一支新画笔将创造一个全新的计算范式

He would later tell journalist Kevin Dupzyk that he visited a farm on Brazil’s eastern shore, wandering around with a notebook and pondering the contribution he wanted to make to computing. He began to think about how computing could displace time and space. Why are we chained to keyboards and screens? Why can’t I use my computer to be with anyone I want, no matter where they are? Alex sensed that the evolution of computing had only reached the equivalent of prehistoric cave paintings. MR was to become a new paintbrush that would create an entirely new computing paradigm.

Alex为自己定义了一个新的职业追求: "我要制造能感知真实世界的机器。感知不是鼠标、键盘和屏幕将是他故事的主角。能感知人类的机器变成了他的 "为什么"

Alex defined a new career quest for himself: “I am going to make machines that perceive the real world.” Perception—not a mouse, keyboard, and screen—would be the protagonist of his story. Machines that perceive us became his “why.”

"如何做就是蓝图,就是要围绕可以感知人类自己、所处环境和周围物体的传感器构建新的计算体验。这种新的计算体验必须能够实现三种交互输入模拟数据的能力输出数字数据的能力以及感知或触摸数据的能力--称为触觉论

The “how,” the blueprint, became to build a new computing experience designed around sensors that can perceive humans, their environment, and the objects around them. This new computing experience must enable three kinds of interactions: the ability to input analog data, the ability to output digital data, and the ability to feel or touch data—something known as haptics.

Kinect 是这一征程的第一步它能做到仅仅通过移动就能为计算机提供输入。我们突然可以与电脑跳舞了。全息透镜正在做更多的验证。它使人、环境和对象能够跨越时间和空间来输入和输出。倏忽之间地球上的宇航员可以勘查火星上的火山口。触觉的最后一步将包括触摸和感觉的能力。当我们用 Kinect来跳舞或用全息透镜去找一块岩石我们还不能感觉到我们的舞伴或那块石头。但有一天这些也会实现。

Kinect was the first step in this journey—it checked the box for a human to provide input to a computer simply by moving. Suddenly we could dance with a computer. Now HoloLens is checking multiple boxes. It enables humans, the environment, and objects to give and receive input and output across time and space. Suddenly an astronaut on Earth can inspect a crater on Mars. The final piece, the haptics, will include the ability to touch and feel. When we dance using Kinect or reach for a rock using HoloLens, we cannot yet feel our dance partner or that rock. But one day we will.

今天微软的焦点是实现混合现实的大众化使其可供每个人使用。我们推出的全息透镜是基于被证明可行的策略——微软邀请外部开发人员帮助我们为全息透镜平台开发富有想象力的应用程序。在我们发布全息透镜后不久超过5000开发者提交了他们想要构建的应用程序的想法。我们在推特上进行了一次二十四小时的民意调查询问我们应该先开发哪种想法。开发者和粉丝们选择了 "银河探险家", 它可以让你从窗外远眺并在银河系中巡航按照自己的节奏移动放大和标注你看到的东西最后保存你的体验。它在你房间的墙壁上复制一个行星的环境——尘土飞扬滚烫的岩浆和冻结成冰。

Today, our focus at Microsoft is to democratize mixed reality, to make it available to everyone. Our launch of HoloLens has been based on a proven strategy for Microsoft—inviting outside developers to help us create imaginative applications for the HoloLens platform. Soon after we announced HoloLens, more than five thousand developers submitted ideas for applications they wanted to build. We ran a twenty-four-hour Twitter poll to ask which idea we should build first. Developers and fans chose Galaxy Explorer, which enables you to look out your window and navigate the Milky Way—moving through it at your own pace, zooming in, annotating what you see, and storing the experience for later. It replicates the environment of a planet on your room’s walls—dusty winds, hot plasma, and ice formations.

现在其他开发人员正在为全息透镜编写极其有用的新应用程序。例如劳氏家居改良商店使用全息透镜让他们的客户站在自己的厨房和浴室然后叠加新的橱柜家电和配件的全息图使他们可以看到厨房和浴室改造后的样子。

Now other developers are crafting tremendously useful new applications for HoloLens. Lowe’s home improvement stores, for example, are using HoloLens to allow their customers to stand in their own kitchens and bathrooms, and superimpose holograms of new cabinets, appliances, and accessories so they can see exactly what their remodel will look like.

这项技术的轨迹始于简单地跟踪机器所看到的但总有一天会完全理解更复杂的任务我们将在人工智能中学习到这些。Kinect 给计算机跟踪目标动作的能力——看到和明白动作的意义。这就是今天人工智能、机器学习和混合现实的现状。技术可以越来越多地看、说、分析但它还不能感觉。但混合现实可以帮助机器体会人的情感。通过这些技术可能越来越多地增强我们体验难民或犯罪受害者遭遇的能力这样就能够潜在地加强我们跨越的沟通障碍建立情感联系。事实上我有机会认识一些来自澳大利亚的学生他们参加了我们的想象杯比赛。他们建立了一个混合现实的应用帮助某些护理人员能站在自闭症的人的视角来了解这个世界。

The trajectory of this technology begins with simply tracking what the machine is seeing but someday will completely understand more complex tasks, which we’ll learn about as we get to artificial intelligence. Kinect gave a computer the ability to track your movements—to see you and make sense of your actions. That’s where AI, machine learning, and mixed reality are today. Technology can increasingly see, speak, and analyze, but it cannot yet feel. But mixed reality may help machines empathize with humans. Through these technologies, we will be able increasingly to experience what a refugee or a crime victim experiences, potentially enhancing our ability to make emotional connections across barriers that currently ide people from one another. In fact, I had a chance to meet several student developers from Australia who participated in our Imagine Cup competition. They built an MR application that helps certain caregivers learn to see the world through the eyes of someone with autism.

 

*  *  *

人工智能在好莱坞已经被不断地演绎,使得技术有了自己的次型。在1973年《西部世界》中游∙博纳扮演一个机器人,他是一个被注入人工智能的牛仔硬汉他走进一个将要发生枪战的沙龙。一年后迪斯尼有了不同的演绎。在《大英雄 6》中一个形名为 大白巨型软机器人亲切地帮助他的十四主人度过一段坎坷的旅途。电影宣称:机器人会改变你的世界"

Artificial Intelligence has been portrayed in myriads of ways by Hollywood, which has practically made the technology its own subgenre. In 1973’s Westworld, Yul Brenner plays a robot—an AI-infused, tough-guy cowboy—who walks into a saloon itching for a gunfight. Year’s later, Disney had a different depiction. In its Big Hero 6, a pillowy giant robot named Baymax lovingly helps his fourteen-year-old owner get through a suspenseful journey. “He’ll change your world,” the film proclaims.

AI 就这样改变我们的世界。它像大白而不是像博纳一样将增强和帮助人类。

And that’s just it. AI will change our world. It will augment and assist humans, much more like Baymax than Brenner.

大数据、计算能力和复杂算法三个方面突破的汇合正在加速人工智能科幻到现实的转变。由于相机和传感器在我们的日常生活应用的指数增长,大数据正在以惊人的速度产生和汇集。人工智能需要数据来学习。云计算为每个人提供了巨大的计算能力复杂算法现在可以用来从堆积如山的数据中识别洞见和智慧

A confluence of three breakthroughs—Big Data, massive computing power, and sophisticated algorithms—is accelerating AI from sci-fi to reality. At astonishing rates, data is being gathered and made available thanks to the exponential growth of cameras and sensors in our everyday life. AI needs data to learn. The cloud has made tremendous computing power available to everyone, and complex algorithms can now be written to discern insights and intelligence from the mountains of data.

但超越了大白和博纳今天的人工智能与所谓的一般人工智能 (AGI)还相差甚远,在AGI这点计算机的智力能与人类匹敌甚至超过人类。与人类智力一样人工智能可以按层分类。底层是简单模式识别,中间层是知觉,感觉越来越复杂场面。据估计, 99% 的人类感知是通过语言和视觉进行。最后智力的最高层次是认知--对人类语言的深刻理解。

But far from Baymax or Brenner, AI today is some ways away from becoming what’s known as artificial general intelligence (AGI), the point at which a computer matches or even surpasses human intellectual capabilities. Like human intelligence, artificial intelligence can be categorized by layer. The bottom layer is simple pattern recognition. The middle layer is perception, sensing more and more complex scenes. It’s estimated that 99 percent of human perception is through speech and vision. Finally, the highest level of intelligence is cognition—deep understanding of human language.

这些都是人工智能的构建基石多年来微软一直投资于推动每个层次的发展:统计机器学习的工具赋予数据意义和识别数据模式能够看到、 听到移动的计算机; 甚至开始学习和理解人类语言的计算机。在我们的首席语言科学家黄学冬和他的团队的领导下微软在一个计算机系统上创造了新的准确性纪录这个系统可以比一个受过专业速记训练的人更准确地记录电话的内容。在计算机视觉和学习方面2015下半年尽管我们只训练我们的系统应对其中的一个挑战,我们的 AI 团队包揽了五项挑战的一等奖。在文字中的常见物体挑战中, AI 系统试图解决几个视觉识别任务。我们训练我们的系统来完成第一个任务仅仅是看一张照片和把它所看到的打上标签。然而通过早期的迁移学习形式我们构建的学习神经网络成功地完成了其它任务。它不仅可以解释照片,还可以在识别的对象上画一个圆圈和产生一个英语句子来描述了它在照片中所看到的动作

These are the building blocks of AI, and for many years Microsoft has invested in advancing each of these tiers—statistical machine learning tools to make sense of data and recognize patterns; computers that can see, hear, and move, and even begin to learn and understand human language. Under the leadership of our chief speech scientist, Xuedong Huang, and his team, Microsoft set the accuracy record with a computer system that can transcribe the contents of a phone call more accurately than a human professional trained in transcription. On the computer vision and learning front, in late 2015 our AI group swept first prize across five challenges even though we only trained our system for one of those challenges. In the Common Objects in Context challenge, an AI system attempts to solve several visual recognition tasks. We trained our system to accomplish just the first one, simply to look at a photograph and label what it sees. Yet, through early forms of transfer learning, the neural network we built managed to learn and then accomplish the other tasks on its own. It not only could explain the photograph, but it was also able to draw a circle around every distinct object in the photograph and produce an English sentence that described the action it saw in the photo.

我相信在未来十年内智能语音和视觉识别将比人类的语音和视觉更好。但是仅仅因为机器可以看见和听到并不意味着它可以真正学习和理解。理解自然语言机器是下一个前沿,是人机之间的互动。

I believe that in ten years AI speech and visual recognition will be better than a human’s. But just because a machine can see and hear doesn’t mean it can truly learn and understand. Natural language understanding, the interaction between computers and humans, is the next frontier.

那么, AI 将如何不辜负对它的期望AI 如何惠及每一个人?答案同样在于分层。

And so how will AI ever live up to its hype? How will AI scale to benefit everyone? Again, the answer is layered.

定制今天AI刚刚开始。它是定制和客户化的。技术公司拥有获得数据、计算能力和算法的特别渠道可以打造 AI 产品并为全世界提供服务。只有少数人能为其他人做 AI。这是今天多数AI的样子。

BESPOKE. Today we are very much on the ground floor of AI. It is bespoke, customized. Tech companies with privileged access to data, computing power, and algorithms handcraft an AI product and make it available to the world. Only a few can make AI for the many. This is where most AI is today.

民主化下一阶段是民主化。作为一个平台公司——它总是构建其他人可以创新的基础技术和工具微软的方法是把人工智能的工具交给每个人的手中。AI 的民主化意味着使每个人和每个组织都能梦想并创造出满足他们特定需求的惊艳AI 解决方案。它类似于便携打字机和印刷厂所创造的民主化。据估计在十五世纪五十年代,在欧洲只有大约3万本书每本都由在修道院工作的人手工制作。古腾堡圣经是第一本使用便携打字技术制作的书在五十年内书的数量估计增长到 1200万册这释放了人民学习力推动了科学和艺术的复兴。

DEMOCRATIZED. The next level is democratization. As a platform company—one that has always built foundational technologies and tools upon which others can innovate—Microsoft’s approach is to put the tools for building AI in the hands of everyone. Democratizing AI means enabling every person and every organization to dream about and create amazing AI solutions that serve their specific needs. It’s analogous to the democratization that movable type and the printing press created. It’s estimated that in the 1450s there were only about thirty thousand books in Europe—each one handcrafted by someone working in a monastery. The Gutenberg Bible was the first book produced using movable type technology, and within fifty years the number of books grew to an estimated 12 million, unleashing a renaissance in learning, science, and the arts.

 这与我们需要的AI基本一致 。要做到这一点我们必须包容、民主。因此,我们的愿景是构建涵盖代理、应用、服务和基础结构各个方面具有真正人工智能的工具:

·       我们利用人工智能来从根本上改变人们与像柯塔娜这样语音助手的互动方式这种场景在我们的生活中变得越来越普遍。

·       应用程序带有AIOffice 365 和动态365软件使它们能够帮助我们专注于最重要的事情并且利用好每一刻

·       我们将使我们服务的底层智能能力如模式识别、感知和认知能力提供给世界上每个应用程序开发人员。

·       最后我们正在构建世界上最强大的 AI 超级计算机并将该基础设施为所有人服务。

 

That’s the same trajectory we need for AI. To get there we have to be inclusive, democratic. And so our vision is to build tools that have true artificial intelligence infused across agents, applications, services, and infrastructure:

·        We’re harnessing artificial intelligence to fundamentally change how people interactwith agents like Cortana, which will become more and more common in our lives.

·        Applications like Office 365 and Dynamics 365 will have AI baked-in so that they can help us focus on things that matter the most and get more out of every moment.

·        We’ll make the underlying intelligence capabilities of our own services—the pattern recognition, perception, and cognitive capabilities—available to every application developer in the world.

·        And, lastly, we’re building the world’s most powerful AI supercomputer and making that infrastructure available to anyone.

许多行业都在使用这些 AI 工具。麦当劳正在创建一个可以帮助员工在汽车餐厅驶入车道上接受订单的AI系统,这使点菜更简单更有效更准确。优步使用我们的认知服务工具来对比司机照片来确保驾驶汽车的人是正确的司机,以防止欺诈和改善乘客安全。沃尔沃正在使用我们的 AI 工具来以帮助识别当司机走神,并警告他们以防止事故。

A range of industries are using these AI tools. McDonald’s is creating an AI system that can help its workers take your order in the drive-through line, making ordering food simpler, more efficient, and more accurate. Uber is using our cognitive services tools to prevent fraud and improve passenger safety by matching the driver’s photograph to ensure the right driver is at the wheel. And Volvo is using our AI tools to help recognize when drivers are distracted to warn them and prevent accidents.

如果你是企业主或经理试想一下如果你有一个人工智能系统可以看到正式全面的经营了解发生了什么事并通知你你最关心的事情。棱镜 Skylabs 在我们的认知服务之上进行了创新使计算机可以监控视频监视摄像头并分析发生了什么。如果你有一个建筑公司系统会在它看到水泥卡车到达你的工作地点之一时通知你。对于零售商它可以跟踪库存或帮助您找到在您某个商店的经理。有一天在医院里AI可能会看到手术,如果它看到了医疗错误,就会辅助医生在为时已晚之前警告手术团队。

If you’re a business owner or manager, imagine if you had an AI system that could literally see your entire operation, understand what’s happening, and notify you about the things you care most about. Prism Skylabs has innovated on top of our cognitive services so that computers monitor video surveillance cameras and analyze what’s happening. If you have a construction company, the system will notify you when it sees the cement truck arrive at one of your work sites. For retailers, it can keep track of inventory or help you find a manager in one of your stores. One day, in a hospital setting, it might watch the surgeon and supporting staff to warn the team, before it’s too late, if it sees a medical error.

学会学习。最终最高的水平状态是计算机学会学习之时计算机生成自己的程序之日。与人类一样计算机将不单单模仿人们的所作所为并将鼓捣出新的、更好的解决问题的方法。深度神经网络和迁移学习正引领着今天的突破但是 AI 就像一架梯子我们还处在梯子的第一阶。在梯子顶部是一般人工智能和机器彻底理解人类语言。这就是当一台计算机展示的智力时,已无法区分人类智力还是人工智能。

LEARN TO LEARN. Ultimately, the state of the art is when computers learn to learn—when computers generate their own programs. Like humans, computers will go beyond mimicking what people do and will invent new, better solutions to problems. Deep neural networks and transfer learning are leading to breakthroughs today, but AI is like a ladder and we are just on the first step of that ladder. At the top of the ladder is artificial general intelligence and complete machine understanding of human language. It’s when a computer exhibits intelligence that is equal to or indistinguishable from a human.

我们的一个顶尖人工智能研究人员决定尝试用一个实验来演示计算机如何学习。Eric Horvi备受尊敬的计算机科学家和医生负责我们在雷德蒙德的研究实验室一直着迷于机器感知学习和推理。他的实验是让访客更容易找到他并使他的助手从不断给出指引的普通任务中解脱出来以从事更重要工作。因此要访问他的办公室你进入一楼大堂那里的摄像头和电脑立即注意到你计算你的方向速度和距离然后作出预测以致到达电梯门时立即为你打开。一下电梯,有一个机器人打招呼问你是否需要帮助你在混乱的走廊和拥挤的办公室里找到Eric Horvi办公桌。在那里一个虚拟助理已经预计到你的到来知道埃里克正在通电话并询问你是否愿意坐下来等到Eric Horvi有空。该系统接受了一些基本的训练但随着时间的推移学会了自学以至于不需要程序员。例如他们接受了训练指导当大厅里有人停下来接电话或停下来捡起一支掉落在地板上的钢笔时该怎么做。它开始推断、学习和编程。

One of our top AI researchers decided to try an experiment to demonstrate how a computer can learn to learn. A highly esteemed computer scientist and medical doctor, Eric Horvitz, runs our Redmond research lab and has long been fascinated with machines that perceive, learn, and reason. His experiment was to make it easier for a visitor to find him, and to free up his human assistant for more critical work than the mundane task of constantly giving directions. So, to visit his office, you enter the ground floor lobby where a camera and computer immediately notices you, calculates your direction, pace, and distance and then makes a prediction so that an elevator is suddenly waiting for you. Getting off the elevator, a robot says hello and asks if you need help finding Eric’s desk among the confusing corridors and warren of surrounding offices. Once there, a virtual assistant has already anticipated your arrival, knows Eric is finishing up a phone call, and asks if you’d like to be seated until Eric is available. The system received some basic training but, over time, learned to learn on its own so that programmers were not needed. It was trained, for example, to know what to do if someone in the lobby pauses to answer a call or stops to pick up a pen that’s fallen on the floor. It begins to infer, to learn, and to program itself.

彼得李是微软的另一个天才 AI 研究员和思想家。一天早晨在他办公室的一次会议上彼得回想起了记者Geoffrey Willans经说过的一些话:"你永远无法理解一种语言直到你明白至少两种”。歌德更进一步“不懂外语的人对自己一无所知”。一项技能或心智功能的学习或改进可以积极地影响另一个技能和心智的学习和心智功能。效果就是迁移学习它不仅让人的智力而且也让机器智力被看见。例如我们的团队发现如果我们训练一台电脑说英语学习西班牙语或其它语言就会变得更快。

Peter Lee is another gifted AI researcher and thinker at Microsoft. In a meeting one morning in his office, Peter reflected on something the journalist Geoffrey Willans once said. “You can never understand one language until you understand at least two.” Goethe went further. “He who does not know foreign languages does not know anything about his own.” Learning or improvement in one skill or mental function can positively influence another one. The effect is transfer learning, and it’s seen not only in human intelligence but also machine intelligence. Our team, for example, found that if we trained a computer to speak English, learning Spanish or another language became faster.

彼得的团队决定发明一个实时、语言对语言的翻译器来打破语言障碍它能让100人在同一时间用九种不同的语言说话或者用五十种不同的语言键入并发送消息。结果令人振奋。全球各地的工人可以通过 Skype 或简单地通过对他们的智能手机讲话就能立刻相互了解。一个中国的演讲者可以用汉语来讲解销售和营销计划而队友们能通过自己的母语看到或听到演讲者所说的内容。

Peter’s team decided to invent a real-time, language-to-language translator that breaks the language barrier by enabling a hundred people at one time to speak in nine different languages, or type messages to one another in fifty different languages. The result is inspiring. Workers all over the globe can be linked via Skype or simply by speaking into their smartphones and understand one another instantly. A Chinese speaker can present a sales and marketing plan in her native language and teammates listening in can see or hear what’s being said in their native languages.

我的同事史蒂夫克莱顿告诉我一个关于这个技术对他的多文化家庭影响有多么深刻的故事。他说第一次看到这项技术他就知道他说英语的孩子将首次能够与他们的说中国话的亲戚进行实时交谈。

My colleague, Steve Clayton, told me the story of how profound this technology was for hismulticultural family. He said the first time he saw the technology demonstrated he knew that his young children, English speakers, would for the first time be able to have a live conversation with their Chinese-speaking relatives.

展望未来, 许多人将使用我们的工具来扩展最初几种语言之外的翻译器。例如一家医疗保健公司可能希望创建英语、西班牙语和其它高度专门化的翻译器来说医学语言。一个 AI 工具将被用来观察和倾听医护人员的谈话然后经过一段时间的观察,会为健康护理专门版本自动生成一个新的模型。一个美洲原住民部落可以通过听长辈们说话来保持它的语言。最好的状态将是那些 AI 系统不仅能翻译还能改善也许把改善病人护理的对话转换成想法或变成一篇文章。

Looking ahead, many others will use our tools to expand the translator beyond the initial languages we began with. A healthcare company, for example, may want to create English, Spanish, and other highly specialized versions of the translator that speak the language of medicine. An AI tool would be used to watch and listen to health-care professionals talk, and then, after a period of observation, would automatically generate a new model for a health-care–specific version. A Native American tribe might preserve its language by listening to elders speak. The optimal state will be when those AI systems not only translate but improve—perhaps converting conversation into ideas about improving patient care or converting a conversation into an essay.

AI长期的神圣目标一直是成为一个非常好的个人助理可以帮助你用有意义方式从家庭和工作中收获最多。在流行电子游戏Halo中,以柯塔娜命名的合成智能角色,研究我们今天站在哪里我们希望有一天能产生一个深入了解你且高效的代理朋友是一个引人入胜的案例。它会知道你的背景你的家庭你的工作。它也会知道世界。它无拘无束,越用它,它会变得更聪明。它从您的所有应用程序的互动中和文档及办公邮件中学习。

The holy grail for AI has long been a really good personal agent that can assist you in meaningful ways to get the most out of life at home and work. Cortana, named for our synthetic intelligence character in the popular video game Halo, is a fascinating case study of where we stand today and how we hope one day to deliver a highly effective alter ego—an agent that knows you deeply. It will know your context, your family, your work. It will also know the world. It will be unbounded. And it will get smarter the more it’s used. It will learn from its interactions with all of your apps as well as from your documents and emails in Office.

如今每个月有超过1亿4500万柯塔娜用户分布在116国家。这些客户已经问了130亿问题每个问题都使得柯塔娜学得越来越有帮助。事实上我已经开始依赖于柯塔娜的承诺功能它搜索我的电子邮件寻找我所作的承诺然后当接近截止日期就会委婉地提醒我。如果我告诉别人我会在三周内跟进他们柯塔娜会记下这一点并提醒我以确保我信守承诺。

Today, there are more than 145 million Cortana users each month in 116 countries. Those customers already have asked 13 billion questions, and with each question the agent is learning to become more and more helpful. In fact, I’ve come to rely on Cortana’s commitment feature, which searches through my emails hunting for promises I’ve made and then gently reminds me as the deadline approaches. If I told someone I’d follow up with them in three weeks, Cortana makes a note of that and reminds me later to ensure I keep my commitment.

我们的柯塔娜团队一个相对新的人工智能和研究部门分支工作在贝尔维尤市中心的一座微软高楼上,透过窗口可以看着太平洋西北部的湖泊和山脉。优美的环境加上推动创新的决心吸引了难以置信的人才——设计师、语言学家、知识工程师和计算机科学家。

Our Cortana team, part of a relatively new AI and research ision, works in a tall Microsoft building in downtown Bellevue with windows looking out over the Pacific Northwest’s lakes and mountains. The beauty of these surroundings coupled with the mandate to push the edges of innovation has attracted incredible talent—designers, linguists, knowledge engineers, and computer scientists.

团队的工程经理之一 Jon Hamaker 说他的目标是让客户告诉他 "我不能没有柯塔娜——她今天又救了我”。他和他的团队用他们的时间去思考那些能让这成为现实的场景。我们的用户做什么-如何做何时做在哪做与谁互动?会与用户建立什么联系?我们怎样才能节省用户时间减少用户压力帮助用户在每天的挑战中领先一步?Hamaker 的任务是从网络中捕获所有类型的数据包括 GPS、电子邮件、日历和相关数据并将数据转换成理解甚至是感同身受。也许你的数字助手会安排时间问你一些问题以弥补数据不足从而帮助你更多。也许助手在不确定的时候会有所帮助——例如当你在一个新的地方货币和语言是外国的。

Jon Hamaker, one of the group’s engineering managers, says his goal is for customers to tell him “I couldn’t live without Cortana—she saved me again today.” He and his team spend their days thinking through scenarios that would make that true. What do our users do—how, when, where, and with whom do they interact? What would build a bond with the user? How can we save the user time, reduce the user’s stress, help the user stay one step ahead of everyday challenges? Hamaker’s quest is to capture every type of data from sources including GPS, email, calendar, and correlative data from the web and turn that data into understanding, and even empathy. Perhaps your digital assistant will schedule time to ask you questions that will help fill in gaps where the data is insufficient in order to help you more. Perhaps the assistant will be helpful in times of uncertainty—when you’re in a new place where the currency and the language are foreign, for example.

这些不确定因素使我们的工程师们着迷于语义本体研究人与实体之间的相互关系。他们的抱负是开发一个不仅仅是给你一个搜索结果而是能做得更多的助理。他们梦想有一天数字助手将理解上下文和意义使用它们来更好地预测你需要和想要的东西。数字助手应该总是有一个好的答案有时甚至是一个你不知道存在的问题的答案。

Those kinds of uncertainties fascinate our engineers who focus on semantic ontologies, the study of interrelationships among people and entities. Their ambition is to develop an agent that can do much more than simply get you a search result. They dream of a day when a digital agent will understand context and meaning, using them to better predict what you need and want. The digital assistant should always have a good answer, sometimes even an answer to a question you didn’t know you had.

艾玛威廉姆斯不是工程师。她是一位英国文学学者专注于盎格鲁-撒克逊和北欧文学。她的工作是通过的情感智能 (EQ) 设计来思考我们的 AI 产品 (包括柯塔娜)。的设计。她对我们语音助手团队的智商有信心,她想确保团队也有相当的EQ

Emma Williams is not an engineer. She was an English literature scholar with a focus on Anglo-Saxon and Norse literature. Her job is to think through the emotional intelligence (EQ) design of our AI products, including Cortana. She’s confident about the IQ of the team we have working on agents; she wants to make sure we have the EQ as well.

有一天她发现了柯塔娜的新面孔当问某些问题时柯塔娜表现出愤怒。威廉姆斯迅速把她的脚放下。(如果说中世纪北欧关于维京人的传说教会了她任何东西那就是在寻找资源时,掠夺不应该成为发现新事物的一部分。)她指出柯塔娜为用户提供了一个隐性承诺即她将永远保持沉着、冷静和镇静。柯塔娜应该理解你的情绪状态,而不是对你发怒不管发生什么都能恰当地做出反应。团队根据威廉姆斯的感受修改了柯塔娜。

One day she discovered a new build of Cortana in which Cortana displayed anger when asked certain questions. Williams promptly put her foot down. (If medieval Norse tales about Vikings taught her anything, it’s that pillaging while searching for resources should not be part of discovering new things.) She made the point that Cortana offers an implicit promise to users that she will always be calm, cool, and collected. Rather than becoming angry with you, Cortana should understand your emotional state, whatever it is, and respond appropriately. The team revised Cortana in accordance with Williams’s sensibilities.

如果这个 AI 助手的旅程是100万英里之一我们只走了前面的几英里。当我们考虑他们可能产生什么时,最初的几步是鼓舞人心的。

If this journey toward an AI-powered assistant is one of a million miles, we’ve walked only the first few of those miles. But these first few steps are inspiring ones when we contemplate what they may produce.

我的前同事David Heckerman是一位杰出的科学家他花了从事了三十年人工智能工作。几年前他创建了第一个有效的垃圾邮件过滤器之一找出了他的对手的薄弱环节——垃圾邮件发送者用大量的垃圾邮件堵塞你的收件箱——和挫败他们的企图。今天他在微软建立的团队开发了机器学习算法发现和利用艾滋病毒、普通感冒和癌症的薄弱环节HIV 是导致艾滋病的病毒在人体内迅速扩散和变异但病毒的变异有其局限性。我们建立的高级机器学习算法已经发现了 HIV 蛋白的哪些部分对其功能是绝对必要的这样疫苗就可以被训练来攻击那些特定地区。利用临床数据他的团队可以模拟突变和锁定目标。同样他们正在给癌症肿瘤进行基因测序和预测攻击免疫系统的的最佳目标。

My former colleague David Heckerman is a distinguished scientist who has spent thirty years working on AI. Years ago, he created one of the first effective spam filters by figuring out the weak link of his adversaries—the spammers who clog your in-box with junk mail—and foiled their attempts to succeed. Today the team he built at Microsoft develops machine learning algorithms designed to discover and exploit weak links in HIV, the common cold, and cancer. HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, mutates rapidly and broadly in a human body, but there are constraints in how the virus mutates. The advanced machine learning algorithms we’ve built have discovered which sections of HIV proteins are absolutely essential to their function so that a vaccine can be trained to attack those very regions. Using clinical data, his team can simulate mutations and identify targets. Similarly, they are taking genomic sequences for a cancer tumor and predicting the best targets for the immune system to attack.

如果这种人工智能工作的潜力让人赞不绝口量子计算的潜力将是令人心悦诚服

If the potential for this AI work is breathtaking, the potential for quantum computing is mind-blowing.

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